Numerous reports have emerged suggesting that, due to international factors, airfare could rise dramatically or flights could become limited during the summer season. However, based on the latest data and industry experience from repjegy.hu, the picture is much more nuanced: Hungarian travelers currently have no reason to panic, but it is worth preparing for a few important changes.
“In our experience, the price of individual airline tickets does not change after purchase. We have seen examples in the past where certain discount airlines introduced a separate fee in the event of unexpected costs (e.g., an extra profit tax), but this is not standard practice. Currently, one airline—which does not operate out of Budapest—uses a so-called ‘fair pricing’ model, which may result in a correction of up to 14 euros per flight depending on changes in the price of kerosene. Passengers are, of course, informed of this in every case,” said Zoltán Holczinger, head of the online division at repjegy.hu.
Airlines are already responding to the uncertain environment, but primarily through flight consolidations and reductions rather than cancellations. “Where there are few passengers on a given flight, those flights are consolidated, but it is important to know that airlines are required to offer an alternative; if that is not accepted, the full fare is refunded.
Regulation (EC) No. 261/2004 governs the rules for canceled flights, under which, in the event of a flight cancellation more than 14 days in advance, the airline is required to offer rebooking (under the same conditions) or a refund.
Since airlines are already liable for compensation within 14 days, stable operations are also crucial for them, so schedule optimization is expected to take place in a timely manner,”
Holczinger added.
A kerosene shortage is not yet directly felt in Hungary, but many airlines have already begun to reduce the frequency of their low-occupancy flights, a move in which awareness of kerosene consumption may play a role. Rising energy prices cannot be retroactively applied to tickets already purchased, so airlines are forced to raise prices to some extent. This is already noticeable on the domestic market, but only minimally, as the strengthening of the forint is slowing the price increase.
“Rising kerosene prices are expected to lead to an increase of up to 10–15% in short-haul (European) airfare prices, as well as to offset the airlines’ losses resulting from this; however, airfare prices are based on the euro and the dollar, thus a further strengthening of the forint could mitigate this.
Photo: Pixabay
It is also important to note that airlines in the oil-rich Gulf countries are currently operating at significantly reduced capacity—some at just 25–35% of their usual flight volume—so once the conflict is resolved, they will likely want to restore their previous flight utilization as soon as possible, even at lower prices. “If this happens, it will also affect the pricing of other competitors, and a price war could even break out,” says Holczinger.
The situation is changing rapidly; as we reported recently, Qatar Airways announced that it plans to launch flights to 150 destinations this summer.
Due to the uncertain news, the behavior of domestic travelers is already changing: the proportion of those booking 30–90 days before departure has increased by 10%; total booking volume has not decreased; however, demand for the U.S. has dropped significantly in recent weeks. “Hungarian travelers aren’t giving up on travel; they’re just planning more carefully,” Holczinger emphasized.
In the short term, certain destinations may be temporarily suspended, or there may be fewer flights. However, according to repjegy.hu, this is not a lasting trend: “In the medium and long term, supply will rebound, just as it did after previous crises.”
Although international news often paints dramatic scenarios, the aviation industry is stable at the systemic level, stakeholders have a strong interest in adapting quickly, and regions reliant on tourism are actively working to maintain demand. “The travel market recovered quickly after the pandemic, and similar dynamics are expected now. There may be uncertainty in the short term, but the desire to travel isn’t going away,” the expert said.
What should travelers do now?
Timing and flexibility: it’s worth planning one to three months in advance, constantly monitoring and comparing offers, and taking advantage of flexible rebooking options.
Safety first: during this period of uncertainty, trip cancellation and travel insurance become crucial, as they can serve as a safety net in case of unexpected events. However, it is always important to be fully informed.
Via turizmus.com; Featured image: Pixabay
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